Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 2.233399 2.356906 2.490579 2.647377 2.828134 3.032422 3.284496
2025-10-12 2.145248 2.308940 2.494605 2.724752 3.008553 3.356474 3.832533
2025-10-19 2.043221 2.225893 2.439268 2.713557 3.068057 3.529959 4.218202
2025-10-26 1.971869 2.169188 2.405286 2.718272 3.139956 3.721723 4.667439
2025-11-02 1.887925 2.089775 2.335071 2.666946 3.126996 3.788323 4.938491
2025-11-09 1.829506 2.037239 2.293517 2.647327 3.152230 3.910420 5.334530
2025-11-16 1.780621 1.993260 2.259128 2.632954 3.181038 4.039681 5.787815
2025-11-23 1.735829 1.951802 2.224942 2.615148 3.201186 4.156021 6.263285
2025-11-30 1.709198 1.931894 2.217356 2.633010 3.276020 4.377778 7.101950
2025-12-07 1.648888 1.865882 2.144870 2.552847 3.188284 4.290109 7.094066
2025-12-14 1.615308 1.833481 2.116232 2.534495 3.198059 4.387199 7.679136
2025-12-21 1.578165 1.795059 2.077689 2.499109 3.176369 4.419216 8.091714
2025-12-28 1.570277 1.795930 2.094262 2.548717 3.305519 4.792555 10.240336
2026-01-04 1.569556 1.806011 2.123700 2.619577 3.480795 5.326560 15.049004
2026-01-11 1.543715 1.781070 2.102280 2.609254 3.507298 5.517392 19.097657
2026-01-18 1.523921 1.763614 2.090670 2.613526 3.561477 5.799902 29.240459
2026-01-25 1.490302 1.726191 2.048805 2.566444 3.511250 5.778157 34.331422
2026-02-01 1.466817 1.702098 2.025477 2.548414 3.516849 5.924228 63.168010
2026-02-08 1.445945 1.681024 2.005775 2.535198 3.530718 6.102701 NaN
2026-02-15 1.425255 1.659647 1.984874 2.518824 3.536462 6.259901 NaN
2026-02-22 1.414594 1.651880 1.983672 2.535236 3.612250 6.693336 NaN
2026-03-01 1.380212 1.610141 1.930778 2.461462 3.488829 6.357764 NaN
2026-03-08 1.362244 1.591156 1.911462 2.444540 3.487802 6.491502 NaN